Three years ago, the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology released highly controversial guidelines for treating elevated cholesterol. Many people, myself included, were very cautious and skeptical of them when they first were released. They represented a pretty radical shift in how we think about prescribing medications called statins. These medications, including atorvastatin (Lipitor), simvastatin (Zocor), and rosuvastatin (Crestor), have been around for decades and despite their share of controversy have been shown to substantially lower the risk of heart attacks and strokes when given to the right people.
With the passing of time, additional reading on the subject, and some reflection, I have come to embrace these new recommendations. Here are some things that I would like you to consider:
Statins have been shown to reduce a person’s risk of a heart attack or stroke by 30-50% over a 10-year period. This seems to apply pretty much across the board regardless of one’s baseline risk. To illustrate, a 40 year old, otherwise healthy woman has about a 2% chance of having a heart attack or stroke over the next 10 years – remember that these can happen unexpectedly in people of all ages but are quite rare in young and the healthy people. Taking a statin would reduce her absolute risk by 30%, bringing her chances down slightly but not very much (50% of almost 0 is still almost 0). But on the other hand, a 60 year old man who smokes and has high blood pressure might have a 30% chance of having a heart attack or stroke over the next decade and taking a statin would reduce his risk to about 15%. He still has a pretty large risk of having an event, but it has been reduced quite a bit.
The current guidelines recommend starting a statin when a person’s 10 year risk of a heart attack or stroke is >7.5%. Another group, the US Preventive Services Task Force earlier this year recommended that treatment begin when the baseline risk is 10%. I think that the difference between 7.5% and 10% for a treatment starting point is not much different from one another. Even before the latest recommendations came out, I didn’t strongly encourage starting statins unless someone was in the 10% or higher risk group. In part it is because of some of the limitations of how the calculator works (a few points up and down in blood pressure or cholesterol can have a real change in the risk estimate) and also because there is fairly modest benefit in treating the lower risk individuals. For example, for someone to reduce their 7.5% chance of having a heart attack or stroke down 4.5% meant that 33 people would need to be treated with a statin for 10 years for one of them to see a benefit. But in the earlier example, reducing a risk from 30% down to 15% will mean that only 7 people will need to be treated for one to see a benefit.
On the topic of risk estimation, the calculator used by the guidelines is rather imprecise and does not take into account family history. I think family history is a major risk factor for a lot of people – both in over- and under-estimating the need for treatment. Because of this, I use risk-calculating tool as a starting point to think about whether or not to start a statin and not as a definitive answer. Although I don’t usually recommend statins for otherwise low risk individuals with a strong family history of heart attacks or strokes (unless they have a bad cholesterol (LDL) >190 which is a separate indication for treatment), I will occasionally deviate from the guidelines if they have a very strong family history. Alternatively, a person with a lot of longevity in their family without early cardiovascular disease might do well to remain off of a statin. If their estimated risk is over 7.5% I will still recommend that they start treatment, but if they decline it I am less likely to ask them to reconsider.